Thursday , June 24 2021

The first tropical system to impact the US could happen next week. The NHC is watching closely

An area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, which is presently disorganized, should be monitored, especially along the Gulf Coast through the end of next week.

“Subsequent slow development of this system is possible as it drifts northwestward to northward, said the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Right now, there’s only a 20% chance of it developing into something tropical during the next 5 days, according to the NHC, and a 30% chance of development during the next 7 days according to other forecasters.

The European and American computer forecast models both have this possible storm developing very slowly.

But it will be worth watching, especially by midweek along the Gulf Coast, as both models hint at a northward track with the system.

The American forecast model for June 18, 2021.

If this forecast holds, this would potentially make this the first storm of the 2021 season to impact the US.

“The location of this potential low pressure is exactly in line with what we consider the typical June formation area,” says CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.

Storm could enter a more favorable environment for development next week.

If this storm happens to get a name, it will be called Bill. We already had Ana, which formed near Bermuda on May 22.

The CPC is forecasting another above-average hurricane season

The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting another busy year in the Atlantic Basin. They foresee anywhere from 13-20 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes — which are a category 3 or higher.

In an average season, we see 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

The 2020 season was unprecedented. We had 30 named storms with 11 of those making landfall in the US. Fourteen were hurricanes and 7 became major hurricanes.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

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